韓國經(jīng)濟研究所的提議

韓國的經(jīng)濟研究所最近的一個提議比較有趣，認為韓國的動力電池的發(fā)展情況不盡如人意，相比中國和日本，有些逆水行舟不進則退的感覺。如下：

 

Korea Economic Research Institute said in a statement:

 

Korean car battery companies, such as LG Chem Ltd. and Samsung SDI Co., have witnessed their combined share in the global battery market plunge to 11 percent in 2018 from 30 percent in 2014, due mainly to a lack of captive buyers.

 

The Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean manufacturers control the battery market  having over 80% share according to KERI. 

 

KERI advised the government to purchase more EVs for the public sector, provide more subsidies to buyers of such green cars and beef up the country’s charging infrastructure. The government said it is pushing to get 250,000 EVs to the public and private sectors by 2020, while increasing investments in charging stations in major cities.

     

 

一個產(chǎn)業(yè)的形成和走勢，有各種各樣的原因。韓國的電池產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展走勢，按照 KERI 的說法已經(jīng)開始落后于中日。這個論斷本身正確性，相信大部分讀者都有自己的判斷。但是這個里面存在一些深層次的問題，產(chǎn)業(yè)需要有本土市場進行支撐，否則很難取得長期的穩(wěn)定性。

 

     

 

其實從目前的各種數(shù)據(jù)來看，目前對電池企業(yè)比較開放的是美國和歐洲市場，從長遠來說，歐洲目前在真正的轉向電氣化，如下圖所示，我們可以看到 LG 在歐洲的產(chǎn)能擴張是真正的飛速提升，相對的美國要差點意思。這個產(chǎn)能擴張圖其實也蘊含著很多的風險，就是上述所提的，本國的基本盤，韓國市場和韓國車企的絕對需求不足，以至于如 LG 拿下的雷諾這樣的車企，在未來也要重新調(diào)整電池采購的供應鏈條安全：

 

電動汽車的增長數(shù)字并不均勻

 

隨著車企對于之前的電池升級和后期的維護，整個需求在某段時間集中爆發(fā)，造成需求的年化數(shù)字超過了之前的預計

 

備注：在 Push EV 上有這個 E63 的電芯的基本 Spec

 

 

電池企業(yè)對于需求的不確定，是按照基本的保守數(shù)字去估算，慢慢提升量能，否則很容易出現(xiàn)放空和產(chǎn)能利用不足的情況，兩邊的差異比較大

 

Renault worries about battery supplies in growing EV market

 

Uneven battery supplies 

 

LG, the South Korean electronics giant, started producing batteries at its new plant near Wroclaw, Poland, in the first half of 2018 with capacity to supply 100,000 electric vehicles -- double that of the original plan in 2015 when the factory was announced. Last November LG said it would invest an additional 500 million euros to support production of 300,000 electric vehicles per year by 2021. 

 

如下所示，韓國的幾家擴產(chǎn)是有車企背書的，也是希望把供應鏈都拉到歐洲去

 

 

Normand said the ramp up of production at the Wroclaw plant led to some "tension" in the supply of batteries in the first half of the year, for both new vehicles and after-sales replacements. Another factor is that predictions for EV sales were too optimistic. "In the past, we were expecting the market to grow rapidly, but the growth wasn't completely in line with initial expectations," he said. "It meant that a number of suppliers, not only LG, were not taking our planning numbers on face value." He said Renault was working with LG to ensure a more consistent flow for at least the next two years. "We have a framework," he said, "so we are very clear on what we want and they are clear on what they can supply to us."

     

按照遠期評估，韓國三家電池制造商 LG 化學(LG Chem)、三星 SDI(Samsung SDI)和 SK 創(chuàng)新公司（SK Innovation）在 2018 年，按照車輛的生命周期里面，總共贏得了全球客戶約 976 億美元的電動汽車動力電池訂單。按照年化 8 年分開算，每年 100 多億美金的單子，這些訂單都是從小開始拉量，必定是不均勻和持續(xù)變化的。

       

我覺得 KERI 的建議對韓國是有效的，可以為韓國電池產(chǎn)業(yè)在擴張產(chǎn)能創(chuàng)造一個基本盤市場，來保底一部分，而不是跟隨著歐洲車企的需求，直接進一步提升產(chǎn)能。有個兄弟舉了個很有趣的比喻，現(xiàn)在各個車企都是用卡車運來包子，現(xiàn)在的電池企業(yè)只能吃個幾屜就吃飽了，多出來的那些對比現(xiàn)在的實際出貨量，很多未知的因素都會起作用，蘊含著很多的變數(shù)。

 

小結：產(chǎn)能的拉升、整個銷量的突破都很難出現(xiàn)一個指數(shù)級別的拐點，這是目前看到的一對矛盾，在這個車企描繪出來的拐點之前，我覺得仁者見仁智者見智。